Not like a blast but with a whimper...

Well, I should start the year on something more up, but life is what life is.

The other day Saddam Hussein was executed by those who feared and hated him, the most. Many have predicted a great up rising over the death but I think that will not be true. Saddam lost any true influence when he abandoned Baghdad in the face of US troops. He did not need to defend Baghdad, he had set the stage for history to remember him as not the vicious dictator he was but as the brave Muslim who stood up to the “great devil” and became a martyr. The fact this does not represent current realty will me little in the future when, I fear, he will become a rallying point for future offensives against the “the west”. History has a strange way of mutating what happened, and I think people now greatly underestimate Saddam’s intention and ability to cast his image to the future. I hope he fails, but time will tell.

ON a separate but related note, I find the timing of the execution to be interesting. The confusion and lack of information leads, inevitably, to theory and talk of conspiracy. I see three likely scenarios.

1) The Iraq Government, wanting to avoid riots and other interruptions planned the chaos as a way to ensure the events when off with out a hitch. I think this unlikely because, judging from the video, it was not a well planned, choreographed or secrete event.

2) The cleric Muqtada al-Sadr militia, trying to take as much control away for the “American” created Iraqi Government, just got tired of waiting, They grabbed, by force, Saddam and took him to the gallows. This was to satisfy their need for revenge, show the weakness of the “Americans” and strengthen the clerics hand in Iraq. Some might say it is unlikely the American forces could be forces to give up Saddam, but if we remember that in mid 2006, they were forced to abandon the search for a lost marine because this same militia did not want the American on their turf. I think this not obvious, because since the hanging there has not been any power move by the cleric to capture a bigger stage, but it is still more likely than the option 1.

3) Some may have missed it in the news, the just prior to event, the Bush team was meeting in Crawford to discuss Iraq and want should happen next. Bush ended the meeting on the 28ths, the next day by 10pm (6am the 30th in Iraq) he was dead. There is a history of miss reading events and rash actions. I find it easy to believe that Bush, and team, believe the problems in Iraq were not caused by a failure of the Bush administration, but really was has all been masterminded (or at least inspired) by Saddam. We all watch the movies; we know being in jail does not stop “evil doers”. I can picture the scene were people are arguing what to do and then a load voice, Bush, is heard, “let kill the Fucker! Why is he still around, I say we call Al and tell him the waiting is over, I want the SOB in the ground before the end of the year.” a rounding roar of cheers, and a call is made and a rushed execution is put into motion. I think this most likely because it is the main cause for the war (I do not think it was oil, not for Bush). He saw Saddam as an affront to his family honour and wanted him dead at any cost. It would also play well in the up coming primaries to say that Saddam was “removed” LAST year. To a media blitzed un-informed electorate, “Last” makes it seem like ancient history, and by the time it election time, Saddam will be a distant memory and the democrats will be blamed for all.

Life is a funny thing; you can’t fast forward it to see if you are right or not. So I quess we will have to travel the river of time and see what we find.